AGP Executive Report

Energy Security: A UN-backed inquiry says Russia’s deliberate attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity, after outages left millions without power and heat. Kyiv was also hit by Russian strikes, killing at least one person. Industrial Policy: Ukraine extended 15% compensation for locally made industrial equipment and is developing an industrial strategy through 2030. Regional Links: Ukraine and Moldova signed a military-technical cooperation agreement and agreed to advance a power-line project that could add 500 MW of electricity exchange capacity. The countries also discussed transport corridors for Ukrainian goods and closer energy cooperation. Agriculture and Logistics: Kernel’s grain exports fell 54% as attacks disrupted port logistics, underscoring the importance of safer Black Sea routes and alternative export corridors. Business Expansion: Moldova offered to help Ukrainian companies reach Romanian and EU markets through logistics routes and production platforms.

Defence Industry: Germany is preparing to buy Ukrainian-made Bars cruise missiles for testing, with a larger order possible if trials succeed—a potential export milestone for Ukraine’s weapons makers. Kyiv is also discussing oversight of nearly €60 billion in EU-backed defence funding, including support for drone and missile production. Energy and Connectivity: Ukraine’s General Staff says Starshield speed restrictions have been lifted, restoring high-speed links used by military systems. Zelenskyy says approval for Patriot and NASAMS missiles is still pending after nearly a month. Aviation: Ukraine is shifting toward Western-style fighter wings, with its first F-16 wing established and bases being prepared to support Gripen aircraft. Business Resilience: Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky urged companies to plan backup production sites and suppliers, citing more than $7.7 billion in damage from Russian attacks. Regulation: The full launch of e-Excise tracking for alcohol and tobacco has been delayed until July 1, 2027, giving businesses more time to prepare.

Power and Grid: Russian strikes have damaged energy facilities, prompting outage schedules on Oct. 26 and limits on industrial electricity use. Kyiv is also targeting more than 1.5 GW of additional thermal capacity, including backup boiler houses, to shore up winter heat supplies. Gas Market: Ukraine’s partial reopening of private gas exports could attract production investment. Producers can export up to 15% of eligible output, and a recent auction sold 12.75 million cubic metres at prices well above Ukraine’s domestic market. Defense Industry: Ukraine’s entry into NATO’s procurement partnership opens access to Alliance contracts and could make weapons and ammunition purchases faster and cheaper for local firms. Industrial Tech: Kyiv-based CODE380 has developed a combat-tested detector that can intercept Russian drone video feeds, giving Ukrainian forces a live view of what the aircraft are filming.

Industrial Supply Chains: Ukrainian strikes reportedly hit Russia’s AVISMA titanium plant, a major supplier to military aircraft and missile makers, and the Energia battery plant, which supplies Russian weapons systems. Damage at both sites remains unclear; Perm officials reported five workers injured and minor damage at an industrial facility. Satellite Communications: Starlink and Starshield speeds have been restored in Ukraine after restrictions disrupted service. Elon Musk accused Ukraine of breaching Starlink’s terms; Ukrainian officials dispute the claim. The dispute underscores the country’s reliance on privately operated communications for frontline logistics and operations. Defense Technology and Energy: Ukrainian firm F-Drones is developing a jet-powered interceptor priced at about $5,000–$7,000 to counter fast Russian attack drones. Separately, Russian overnight strikes damaged energy infrastructure in Zhytomyr region, sharpening concerns ahead of winter.

Satellite Connectivity: Starlink and military-grade Starshield speeds have returned to pre-restriction levels, Kyiv says, restoring capacity for frontline logistics and drone operations. Elon Musk says Ukraine violated Starlink’s terms; the dispute highlights the risks of relying on privately controlled communications. Industrial Targets: Ukraine says it struck Russia’s Proton-Electrotex missile-components plant and Tolyatti’s synthetic-rubber facility; separate reports say drones hit Omsk’s petrochemical plant and an Ozon logistics hub. Defence Industry: Ukraine has joined NATO’s procurement partnership, opening access to Alliance contracts, while Germany is discussing purchases of Ukrainian jet-powered drones. Energy Security: Russian attacks are driving emergency power cuts as Ukraine prepares for winter. Kyiv has launched 85 MW of generation, and Ukraine has begun the process of joining the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency.

Military Connectivity: Ukraine says Starlink and Starshield links are stable again at speeds above 400 km/h, restoring support for drone operations, frontline logistics and communications after restrictions disrupted missions. Defence Production: Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara says the government is working on predictable procurement and expanding production capacity, with exports considered only after the military’s needs are met. Croatian drone maker ORQA and Ukraine’s General Cherry are also building an underground facility for drone components. Drone Exports: Germany is discussing a purchase of Ukrainian-made Bars jet-powered drones, following a deal to jointly produce them. Transport Links: Ukraine and Romania plan to advance rail capacity, river transport and freight handling, while discussing wider defence and energy cooperation. Russian Supply Chains: Kyiv imposed sanctions on people and companies linked to Russian missile and weapons production. Ukrainian forces also reported strikes on the Proton-Elektrotex electronics plant and Tolyattikauchuk chemical plant, which Kyiv says supply Russia’s weapons industry.

Digital Infrastructure: Ukraine says Starlink speed limits still disrupt military operations, strengthening the push for sovereign satellite communications with Finland’s ICEYE and Nokia. Energy: Russian strikes have halved electricity exports and left more than 500,000 people without power; Kyiv has brought 85 MW of generation online for winter. Defence Industry: Germany is discussing joint production and purchases of Ukraine’s Bars cruise missile, while Ukrainian drone maker TAF is exploring a Czech joint venture. Shipping: The state will cover up to 80% of eligible war losses for civilian vessels, offering relief as attacks raise insurance costs and threaten Black Sea trade. Agriculture and Logistics: Russian-linked hackers reportedly used a decentralized network to infiltrate and wipe data at a Ukrainian grain logistics company.

Energy & Utilities: Russian strikes left more than 500,000 people without power, with emergency outages and limits on industrial and business use as repairs continue under threat. Defense Industry: Germany is discussing purchases and co-production of Ukrainian long-range missiles, while a new NATO procurement channel could help Ukraine buy weapons faster and cheaper. Kyiv is also easing rules for underground weapons production. Digital Infrastructure: Starlink restrictions are still disrupting military connectivity; Ukraine plans a satellite system with Finnish firms Nokia and ICEYE, whose capabilities could also support logistics and energy. Agriculture & Logistics: Ukraine wants grain-truck checks moved inside EU countries to reduce exposure to Russian attacks. Damage to food distribution centres is also pushing up logistics costs, with higher pork prices expected.

Defense Manufacturing: Ukraine has cleared private firms to build underground weapons factories, which can then be leased or sold to defense producers. The government also waived import taxes on partner-funded weapons components and simplified customs clearance. NATO Procurement: Ukrainian companies can now compete for NATO contracts, while the military can use the Alliance’s procurement agency to buy weapons and ammunition. Energy and Logistics: Finland signed €300 million in support agreements with Ukraine, including ten locomotives, energy assistance and cooperation with Nokia and ICEYE on satellite communications. Industrial Security: Russian-linked hackers reportedly used a destructive cyberattack against a Ukrainian grain logistics company, highlighting risks to critical supply chains. Funding: The EU says it normally covers two-thirds of Ukraine’s financial needs; Kyiv has requested an additional €70 billion for 2027.

Industrial and Energy Strikes: Russian attacks hit Kyiv’s energy, railway and business infrastructure, while a separate strike set fire to a food-production facility in Odesa region. Naftogaz says it has prepared 24 winter-response scenarios based on attack intensity, temperatures and gas output. Defence Manufacturing: Ukraine has cleared private firms to build underground weapons factories and lease or sell them to arms makers, while easing import costs for some weapons components. Industry Strategy: Valeriy Zaluzhny warned that overseas partners see Ukraine’s roughly 500 defence manufacturers as disconnected firms, not a coordinated industry, citing a lack of national strategy and long-term funding. Procurement and Security: A new partnership with NATO’s procurement agency could help Ukraine buy weapons, ammunition and equipment faster and at lower cost. Germany also arrested a Ukrainian man suspected of gathering information on European defence production for Russian intelligence.

Energy and Infrastructure: Russia has carried out about 60 strikes on Ukraine’s energy and oil-and-gas facilities in three days, while a ballistic missile hit a Kyiv transport facility, injuring six. Repair crews are working under difficult conditions as outages spread. Defence Industry: Denmark guaranteed a $112.6 million loan for Ukrainian missile maker Fire Point, while Ukraine and Norway are advancing three air-defence projects, including work on the FREYJA interceptor. Trade and Logistics: Russia’s attacks on Black Sea export routes threaten Ukrainian farm shipments; officials estimate losses of €60 million a day. Japan has lifted five-year restrictions on Ukrainian poultry and egg imports, reopening an important market. Investment: The European Investment Bank is providing €60 million to modernise border infrastructure, with a separate €275 million project under review to strengthen substations against attacks.

Energy and Infrastructure: Russian strikes killed four people and damaged energy and transport facilities, triggering emergency power cuts in Kyiv; a drone also hit a gas production site in Kharkiv region. Border Logistics: The EIB is lending Ukraine €60 million to upgrade western border crossings, roads and customs systems, aiming to cut freight delays and strengthen trade links with the EU and Moldova. Defence Industry: Ukraine and Norway are accelerating the FREYJA missile-interceptor program, with initial testing targeted by year-end; Kyiv also expects further Norwegian military support in November. Publishing: Russian attacks destroyed about 13 million books this summer, according to Ukraine’s culture minister, as the government prepares support for publishers and recovery projects.

Energy Security: Russian strikes hit power facilities across Ukraine, triggering outages as winter approaches; Kyiv is advancing a €275 million EIB-backed plan to protect Ukrenergo substations. Business Impact: Russian attacks have cost Ukrainian businesses an estimated $7.7 billion this year, Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi said. Telecoms: Vodafone Ukraine plans to add solar power at 400 more cell towers, helping keep communications running during outages. Defence Manufacturing: Ukraine is seeking to expand joint weapons production with German defence companies as Kyiv also pushes to speed up EIB-backed infrastructure and industrial projects. Trade & Logistics: Russian attacks have damaged logistics hubs and port infrastructure, while Ukrainian postal operators are preparing for new EU customs rules for exporters from November 1.

Energy: Russian strikes hit facilities in seven Ukrainian regions, including three DTEK sites in Odesa, leaving 32,700 families without power. Kyiv says attacks on energy infrastructure have continued daily since mid-July, with more than 2,100 recorded; a new rule lets generation units across the grid compete to help balance supply. Agriculture and Trade: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that attacks on Ukrainian ports, storage and shipping routes are adding to global food-supply risks. About 90% of Ukraine’s exports move through the Black Sea, and Kyiv is seeking alternative routes. Logistics: A Russian drone strike set a truck and pallets alight at a Kyiv-region logistics hub, while Ukraine’s prime minister says Russian attacks have cost businesses $7.7 billion this year. Manufacturing: Ukrainian firm Aviation New Technologies upgraded its MERCURY reconnaissance drone, extending flight endurance to five hours and improving its controls and communications setup.

Energy Infrastructure: Russian drones struck a critical facility in Lviv region twice on Oct. 20, after a wider attack damaged 28 substations and energy sites, leaving more than 500,000 people without power, heat or water. Business Impact: Russian attacks have cost Ukrainian businesses an estimated $7.7 billion this year, according to the prime minister; a separate strike on an enterprise in Kyiv region killed one worker and injured six. Defence Manufacturing: Ukraine plans to increase production of turrets to counter Shahed drones, while developing low-cost missiles to intercept jet-powered threats. Trade and Transport: Kyiv is discussing a protected Black Sea grain route with Türkiye, Egypt and India, and plans another standard-gauge railway link to the EU to improve export access.

Black Sea Trade: Ukraine is negotiating with Türkiye, Egypt and India on protected shipping for agricultural exports, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia opposes the proposal. He has also asked neighbouring countries to reopen grain transit routes as Black Sea exports face disruption. Energy and Utilities: Russian strikes damaged more than 10 energy facilities across 11 regions, cutting power to at least 550,000 households. Kyiv’s water and sewage systems are especially vulnerable to outages as winter approaches. Manufacturing: Missiles hit the Planeta Plastik plant in Irpin, which makes agricultural and industrial films, grain-storage sleeves and pipes; the company says all staff are safe as it assesses the damage. Defence Technology: Ukrainian forces say they completed a first-of-its-kind evacuation of a wounded soldier using a modified heavy-lift drone after mines and enemy drones made a ground rescue too dangerous.