AGP Executive Report

Energy: Russia struck Ukraine’s energy infrastructure 78 times in three days, DTEK says. Zelenskyy says every power plant has been damaged and is seeking transformers, cables and generators from Spain and Latin America to speed repairs. Industry Funding: The EU released €4.36 billion, including €658 million for defence procurement, with most of that funding earmarked for Ukrainian companies. Business Protection: Kyiv expanded private air defence, allowing participating firms to protect other companies’ sites under contract and use manned aircraft and interceptor drones. Defence Production: Zelenskyy invited Ibero-American countries to join Ukraine’s Drone Deal format for joint production and technology sharing, saying domestic capacity exceeds available funding. Transport and Power: Slovakia pledged three locomotives and 54 generators, while Spain announced a €437 million military aid package.

Industrial Investment: Businesses can reclaim 15% of the cost of eligible Ukrainian-made machinery; the first list covers 309 products from 17 manufacturers, supporting domestic production and upgrades. Energy Resilience: The government reinstated extra monthly payments of UAH 30,000 for workers repairing energy facilities damaged by Russian strikes. Attacks forced nuclear plants to cut output and disrupted Kyiv’s water supply, which is now being restored. Defense Industry: Norway pledged nearly $96 million for Ukraine’s defense industry, while the European Commission’s accession roadmap sets a 2027 target to close seven negotiating chapters, including industrial policy. Oil and Logistics: Ukrainian strikes have put 15 of Russia’s 38 major refineries out of operation, according to Ukrainian intelligence. At home, rising logistics costs are weighing on agricultural exports, with corn prices falling below $200 a tonne.

Energy Under Attack: Russian strikes on power facilities across nine regions caused Kyiv’s worst water outage of the full-scale war and forced nuclear plants to cut output. Water has since been restored, but emergency power cuts continue. Infrastructure Repairs: Ukraine will pay energy, utility and railway workers an extra UAH 30,000 a month for restoration work through the heating season. Economic Pressure: GDP contracted 0.7% year on year in the third quarter, while industrial output fell 9.2% in September, as attacks and disrupted logistics weigh on production. Defense Industry: Norway pledged about $107 million for Ukraine’s defense sector, while a Ukrainian firm developed a high-power LTE modem to keep drones and ground robots connected during Starlink disruptions. EU Integration: Brussels confirmed Ukraine has met conditions to open all accession negotiating clusters; energy, agriculture and digital sectors were among areas showing progress.

Energy and Industry: Russian strikes damaged power plants and substations across nine regions, forcing emergency outages and cuts to nuclear generation. Industrial consumers face power restrictions as repairs continue. Defence Investment: Norway will commit NOK 1 billion ($95.9 million) over three years to attract private investment into Ukraine’s defence industry. Industrial Output: Production fell 9.2% year-on-year in September, leaving output down 1.9% in the first nine months of 2026. EU Accession: Brussels says Ukraine could complete accession negotiations by the end of 2028, but needs faster reforms; the Commission highlights energy, agriculture, critical raw materials and defence production as areas of potential.

Energy: Russia’s largest attack of the year hit power facilities across 10 regions, knocking three DTEK thermal plants offline and disrupting electricity and water. Three drones also targeted a substation vital to the Khmelnytskyi nuclear plant, raising safety concerns. Germany pledged €200 million in additional winter energy aid. Defence Industry: Ivan Havryliuk was appointed CEO of Ukroboronprom. Poland plans to produce components for Ukraine’s Bohdana howitzer, while Norway is allocating about $107 million to investment in Ukraine’s defence industry. Shipping and Trade: Rising Black Sea risks are prompting shipowners to consider refusing voyages to Romanian and Bulgarian ports. Grain trade shifts have also cut demand for Panamax carriers, benefiting smaller bulk vessels. Industry and Agriculture: Ukraine’s industrial output fell 9.2% year on year in September and 1.9% over the first nine months. An attack also damaged an agricultural enterprise in Zhytomyr region.

Energy and Infrastructure: Russia’s latest barrage hit power facilities across nine regions, knocking three of DTEK’s five thermal plants offline and damaging rail assets. Germany says it is implementing additional energy and air-defense support ahead of winter. Defense Technology: Kyiv has installed an electronic-warfare network across hundreds of sites to disrupt Russian drones’ radio links. Ukraine also named Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk to lead Ukroboronprom. Arms Production: Polish firms are preparing to adapt vehicle platforms for production of Ukraine’s combat-tested Bohdana howitzers, including maintenance and support. Agriculture and Trade: Kyiv is pushing back against permanent EU limits on Ukrainian farm exports, while attacks on Black Sea shipping threaten grain routes and global food supplies.**

Energy Security: Zelensky warned Russia is preparing fresh strikes on energy and logistics infrastructure, with recent attacks already causing power cuts. Germany and the UK are working on an air-defence plan as Patriot supplies remain tight. Gas Transit: Washington has reportedly proposed restoring Russian gas flows to Europe through Ukraine, potentially using a US intermediary and escrow for revenues. The idea has exposed divisions between Kyiv and the EU; Moscow says a restart is currently impossible. Agrifood: Ukraine and the EU have opened two economic accession clusters, but agriculture remains a sensitive hurdle. The sector generates 7.6% of GDP and about 60% of exports, while war damage and limited farm financing complicate reforms. Trade & Logistics: Russian strikes are hampering food exports through Ukrainian ports. Kyiv and Ankara have agreed to work on a Black Sea grain corridor. Defense Industry: The US approved a $2.1 billion sale of 500 Patriot missiles, but deliveries may stretch into the 2030s. Kyiv is also seeking joint interceptor production and European support to strengthen domestic capabilities.

Energy Security: Russian attacks hit Ukraine’s energy sector 94 times in a week, damaging infrastructure 208 times and triggering emergency power restrictions. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Kyiv could pause strikes on Russian refineries if Moscow stops targeting Ukraine’s energy system—or if the US supplies Patriot missiles. Air Defence: Washington has approved a $2.1 billion sale of 500 Patriot interceptors, funded by allies, but deliveries may take years, leaving Ukraine exposed during the winter offensive. Agriculture and Shipping: Russian strikes on Black Sea ports have crippled food exports just as Ukraine expects an 82-million-tonne harvest. Farmers are selling at steep discounts amid limited storage and rising risks to merchant shipping. Gas Transit: The US is reportedly promoting a restart of Russian gas flows through Ukraine as part of an energy truce, with Kyiv potentially earning transit fees. The EU resists the proposal, and the Kremlin says a restart is currently impossible. Defence Procurement: Ukraine has opened a UAH 43.8 billion tender for 2027 military food supplies, with updated standards for nutrition, frozen meat and produce.

Energy Infrastructure: Russian strikes hit power facilities in four regions, leaving hundreds of thousands of households without electricity as crews worked to restore service. Ukraine says Russia launched nearly 2,000 drones and 44 missiles in a week. Energy Cooperation: Turkish energy companies are due in Ukraine next week to discuss joint projects; another shipment of generators and other equipment is also expected. Air Defence: The US approved a $2.1 billion sale of 500 Patriot interceptors, but deliveries may not begin for years. Zelenskyy offered to pause strikes on Russian refineries if Kyiv receives the missiles sooner. Gas Transit: The US is backing a rapid resumption of Russian gas exports to Europe through Ukraine as part of talks on an energy ceasefire, the Wall Street Journal reported; Reuters could not verify the report. Trade Routes: Ukraine and Türkiye agreed to work on a Black Sea grain corridor, aiming to support exports and shipping security.

Energy Infrastructure: Russian strikes damaged substations, transformers and power lines in four regions, leaving hundreds of thousands of households without electricity. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia fired 1,940 attack drones, more than 1,580 guided bombs and 44 missiles at Ukraine over the past week; repair crews are working as Kyiv presses allies to speed up air-defence deliveries. Defence Industry: Ukraine says it hit Russia’s Kamensky missile-production plant and a Pantsir-S2 system and S-400 command vehicle, valued together at about $70 million. Separately, Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point says its long-range strike systems can complete missions without satellite links, reducing reliance on SpaceX. Russian Refining: A drone attack caused significant damage to an industrial site in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region. Reports identify it as the NORSI refinery, but Russian authorities have not confirmed the target. Black Sea Trade: Türkiye and Ukraine agreed to work toward reviving a grain corridor, with maritime security and safe shipping central to the effort.

Energy Resilience: Russian strikes left nearly 300,000 Ukrainian households without power, prompting hourly outages on Nov. 1. Zelensky says more generators and energy equipment from Türkiye are expected next week, alongside planned energy and infrastructure projects. Trade & Logistics: Zelensky and Erdoğan agreed to work on keeping a Black Sea grain corridor operational, as Türkiye warned attacks on civilian vessels threaten shipping. Industrial Targets: Ukrainian forces said strikes damaged workshops and a warehouse at Russia’s Kamensky rocket-fuel plant; a drone attack also sparked a fire at a Ufa refinery. Defence Procurement: The U.S. approved a potential $2.1 billion, allied-funded sale of 500 Patriot missiles, but Zelensky warned deliveries could take years.

Energy Disruption: Russian strikes left about 280,000 households without power across the Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, damaging power plants, substations and gas infrastructure. Dnipro’s public transport was also disrupted as repair crews worked to restore supply. Air Defense: Washington approved a $2.1 billion sale of 500 Patriot interceptors, funded by European allies and Canada, but reported delivery timelines extend beyond 2030. President Volodymyr Zelensky is urging partners to transfer missiles from existing stockpiles ahead of winter. Defense Production: Ukraine’s defense minister and military chief agreed to expand domestic weapons production and strengthen supply to the armed forces. Separately, Ukrainian drones and Neptune missiles struck Russia’s Kamensky Combine, damaging four workshops at a plant that makes rocket fuel. Oil and Shipping: Ukraine has resumed strikes on Russian refineries after a two-week pause, with attacks reported in Ufa and Samara. Zelensky’s talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are also expected to address Black Sea shipping and maritime security.

Energy Infrastructure: Russian strikes knocked out power at critical facilities in Kyiv and disrupted water pressure, while attacks across several regions have left hundreds of thousands without electricity. Air Defence: The US approved a potential $2.1 billion sale of 500 Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, funded by Canada, Germany, Norway and EU-backed financing; Kyiv is pressing for faster delivery as winter strikes continue. Defence Industry: The EU’s proposed 2027 loan plan earmarks €31.7 billion for defence and €13.3 billion for budget support. Ukrainian defence firms also signed $5.4 million in subsidised equipment-leasing deals to expand production capacity. Transport Resilience: Kyiv has begun building backup crossings over the Dnipro after Russian attacks on bridges, with the first expected to be operational early next year. Economic Outlook: The National Bank forecasts GDP to contract 0.4% in 2026, with inflation at 12.5%, as strikes weigh on economic activity.

Energy and Industry: Russian strikes left consumers without power in Kyiv and four regions, with restrictions also imposed on industrial users as repairs continue. Defense Technology: Ukraine has opened Brave1 grant competitions for air-to-air missiles and domestically made radars, aiming to counter aerial threats and reduce the cost of intercepting jet-powered drones. Missile Production: Destinus says it is producing nearly 300 Ruta cruise missiles a month and has made more than 1,750; the company expects its engine capacity to meet European demand, including Ukrainian orders, by 2027. Sanctions and Space: Kyiv sanctioned companies and individuals developing Russia’s Rassvet satellite network, alongside 39 shadow-fleet vessels, targeting technology and supply chains that could support Russian military communications. Logistics: Nova Poshta’s nine-month net profit rose 70% to UAH 2.63 billion, though it recorded a third-quarter loss after Russian shelling intensified. Economic Outlook: The National Bank forecasts Ukraine’s GDP will contract 0.4% in 2026, with inflation at 12.5%.

Energy Trade: Moldova bought 2 million cubic meters of Ukrainian gas below spot-market prices, and plans to seek larger volumes before private export permissions expire on Nov. 30. Energy Resilience: Azerbaijan delivered $1.5 million in transformers, cables and switchgear to Ukraine; meanwhile, Russian refineries boosted crude processing by 25% after Ukrainian strikes paused. Industrial Outlook: The National Bank forecasts Ukraine’s GDP will shrink 0.4% in 2026 as attacks weigh on activity, while steel production fell 80% in September. Defence Innovation: Ukraine and NATO’s DIANA signed a first-of-its-kind agreement to help Ukrainian innovators test technologies and connect with NATO expertise, opening a route to scale battlefield-tested products.

Transport and Industry: A Russian drone strike on Dnipro’s railway station killed 14 people, disrupting a vital passenger network; a separate strike on an industrial site in the city injured one. Power Generation: Ukrnafta will receive nearly UAH 939 million from a Finnish-Ukrainian fund to build four gas-fired plants in western Ukraine, adding 60 MW to the grid. Energy Resilience: Azerbaijan sent Ukraine $1.47 million in equipment, including nine transformers and 186 kilometres of power cable. Economic Outlook: The National Bank now forecasts GDP will shrink 0.4% in 2026, citing attacks on ports, factories and logistics; mining and metallurgy have suffered the heaviest losses. Agriculture: Kernel is working with NASA Harvest and international partners on satellite monitoring to verify crop-rotation practices, potentially helping producers secure financing and meet EU market requirements.